Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection
Identifieur interne : 003954 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003953; suivant : 003955Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection
Auteurs : M. G. Roberts [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; J. A. P. Heesterbeek [Pays-Bas]Source :
- Journal of Mathematical Biology [ 0303-6812 ] ; 2007-11-01.
English descriptors
Abstract
Abstract: We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number $$ \mathcal{R}_0 $$ early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of $$ \mathcal{R}_0 $$ with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of $$ \mathcal{R}_0 $$ , and we quantify the discrepancies that arise.
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DOI: 10.1007/s00285-007-0112-8
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Biol.</title><idno type="ISSN">0303-6812</idno><idno type="eISSN">1432-1416</idno><imprint><publisher>Springer-Verlag</publisher><pubPlace>Berlin/Heidelberg</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2007-11-01">2007-11-01</date><biblScope unit="volume">55</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">5-6</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="803">803</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="816">816</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0303-6812</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0303-6812</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic reproduction number</term><term>Emerging infectious disease</term><term>Epidemics</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract: We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number $$ \mathcal{R}_0 $$ early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of $$ \mathcal{R}_0 $$ with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of $$ \mathcal{R}_0 $$ , and we quantify the discrepancies that arise.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Nouvelle-Zélande</li><li>Pays-Bas</li></country><region><li>Utrecht (province)</li></region><settlement><li>Utrecht</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Nouvelle-Zélande"><noRegion><name sortKey="Roberts, M G" sort="Roberts, M G" uniqKey="Roberts M" first="M. G." last="Roberts">M. G. Roberts</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Roberts, M G" sort="Roberts, M G" uniqKey="Roberts M" first="M. G." last="Roberts">M. G. Roberts</name></country><country name="Pays-Bas"><region name="Utrecht (province)"><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, J A P" sort="Heesterbeek, J A P" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J" first="J. A. P." last="Heesterbeek">J. A. P. Heesterbeek</name></region><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, J A P" sort="Heesterbeek, J A P" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J" first="J. A. P." last="Heesterbeek">J. A. P. Heesterbeek</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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